The reemergence of inflation as a serious economic problem in 2021 caught most observers flat footed. Yet it is now becoming clear that many of the forces that pushed inflation down for a generation, such as globalization and favorable demographics, are reversing. These factors will be compounded by the effects of climate change on food and energy supply chains going forward, all of which will mean ‘higher prices for longer’ than we have been used to in a very long time. In this talk, which draws from his forthcoming book, Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers, Blyth shows how once inflation becomes embedded different groups in society use different stories about what is causing higher prices to push the costs of inflation on to someone else. Rather that there being a singular ‘true’ view of inflation, Blyth argues that rival inflation stories are better thought of as a political struggle to get someone else to pay the bills. Once you realize this, it becomes easier to navigate inflation over the long run and to not become a loser to inflation in the process.

Geopolitics is back, and its effecting everything from supply chains to military alliances. In the middle of all this are firms with global operations who are trying to navigate a future that is quite different from the peaceful, globalized past. What’s going to give direction to this uncertain moment is the race to decarbonize the world’s leading economies. China has staked leadership in several sectors and has brought many aspects of ‘green tech’ to scale. Critically, China controls the refineries for the rare earths critical for this endeavor for other players in the game. Consequently, the EU, which also wants to lead this transition, is critically dependent on China for its own transition. The USA is trying to reclaim leadership through the IRA and the ‘CHIPS’ Act, but risks alienating the EU and East Asia in the process. Meanwhile, carbon heavy economies such as Russia and the Gulf states are trying to preserve their assets from becoming stranded. In short, it’s a whole new geopolitics that is going to reshape everything your firm does, and indeed, it already is. Blyth is your guide to this emerging new order.

That ‘we live in an increasing polarized world’ has become a commonsense piece of wisdom. That ‘the world has become more unequal and distrustful of elites,’ is another. ‘The world is so much more stressful,’ is a third. What ties these wisdoms together is the anger that they generate. In his "Financial Times Critics Choice" book with Eric Lonergan, Angrynomics, Mark Blyth takes this outpouring of anger seriously, differentiating among the types of anger we see today in order to understand the world around us today. Blyth explains why such outbursts of anger are the consequence of large-scale economic crashes, and why this ‘Angrymonics’ is sustained and amplified when such crashes combine with the appearance of new and challenging micro-level stressors in our daily lives – rapid technological changes and aging societies - that make this moment of Angrynomics particularly acute. Blyth does not however stop at diagnosis. He suggests a set of new ideas that cut across tired old political lines stressing that there are many ways to rescue ourselves from Angrynomics.

The politics of the developed world has become disturbed. Far from being a temporary blip, populism on the right and left is here to stay, and it will shape our economies for the next decade. But underneath that ‘system shift’ the rich countries are also getting older. Older people save more, spend too little, and vote more than everyone else. And both of these secular trends are taking hold in a world that is in the throes of a digital disruption. The usual response is to fear this disruption, taking its effects on jobs and incomes as always bad. Mark Blyth challenges this view and argues that not only is there an upside to disruption for everyone through doing more with less, he also shows us why an aging and populist world can only be stabilized and prosper with more tech, not less. He strongly argues that we need to embrace the digital future in order to survive our populist present.

Before becoming an acclaimed political economist and author, Mark Blyth was, for a brief time, a stand-up comedian. In this talk, which is a great closer for any conference, he combines his passion for political economy with comedy to explain why economic ideas that are not supported by evidence not only persist, but multiply. He charts an amusing course from the limits of human cognition to the incentive structures of organizations to explain why humans are so bad at understanding the world that they live in. Throughout, Blyth reminds us that stupid economic ideas are everywhere, how to spot them, and why, paradoxically, we can’t really do without them.